Wild weather warning over produce price spikes

The UK’s wet and wild weather over recent months means hospitality and catering operators are likely to face sharp increases in the cost of key food and drink lines, warned buying specialist Lynx Purchasing.

Many crops, ranging from potatoes, carrots and salad for summer menus to the wheat grown to make beer, have been delayed or damaged by the heavy rain, which has left large areas of agricultural land waterlogged.

Rachel Dobson, managing director of the purchasing group, said the wet weather’s impact will be felt in the supply chain for a while longer, even if sunnier days ahead encourage more consumers to visit hospitality venues.

The warning comes as Lynx Purchasing publishes the summer 2024 edition of its Market Forecast, using insight from its suppliers as well as official inflation data to look at food and drink pricing in the run-up to the summer trading period. 

“Although the headline rate of inflation is expected to continue to fall across the summer and into autumn, operators don’t always see the full benefit when there are specific problems,” added Dobson. “Our advice is that hospitality businesses should prepare for higher prices and potential shortages across a range of produce.”

She cited supermarkets’ buying muscle as being a challenge to hospitality businesses, as large retailers can secure available supplies, while operators will have to compete for whatever’s left “with prices higher and quality perhaps not as good”.

Among the product areas highlighted in the latest Market Forecast are:

Potatoes The prolonged wet weather has affected the quality and timing of the UK crop, along with other root vegetables. European potato prices soared last year, and there are serious concerns for this year’s growing season.

Salads Outdoor planting of products such as onions, peppers and tomatoes will be later than usual in the UK, due to the generally waterlogged conditions. Glasshouse-grown produce will be available, but suppliers may rely on higher-priced imports for longer than usual.

Vegetables Growers will be hoping for dry spring weather to help with planting crops such as carrots, cauliflower and broccoli. Any delay in planting will mean relying for longer on imports, at a higher cost.

Beef UK beef production is forecast to remain largely stable in 2024. However, any increase in demand linked to an upturn in consumer spending, for example if good weather boosts barbecue menus, could see prices increase sharply.    

Olive oil The long, hot, dry summer in much of the Mediterranean last year damaged olive trees and caused a poor crop, pushing olive oil prices to an all-time high. Stocks are already significantly down on previous years and are likely to run very low before the next harvest.

Dobson said: “As the well-publicised olive oil shortage shows, the challenges facing food and drink producers go beyond the UK. Along with extreme weather events around the world, the impact of conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East means increases in the time and cost of shipments.

“The best advice to operators is to place orders in good time, keep speaking to suppliers about availability and keep menu descriptions flexible to allow for changes if needed.”