Foodservice inflation falls year-on-year but rises in June

Year-on-year inflation in the foodservice sector has fallen for 12 months in a row, according to Prestige Purchasing and CGA by NIQ’s latest Foodservice Price Index (FPI) report.

Inflation in June 2024 stood at 3.6%, a rate now considered normal for the industry. The 12 consecutive months of decline follows several years of historically high inflation.

However, the index also recorded month-on-month inflation of 1.3% in June. After a period of deflation or only fractional inflation, this is the largest increase in 12 months and a return to similar levels seen five months ago.

This shift suggests that while the overall inflationary trend is encouraging, price fluctuations remain a challenge for the foodservice sector.

Of the 10 categories in the FPI, only vegetables remain in double-digit inflation – driven primarily by the potato market, where poor weather conditions have affected 2023 crops and availability leading into the 2024 season. Adverse weather has also impacted other outdoor vegetables, causing delays in planting and poor availability during the seasonal crossover, pushing up prices for carrots, onions and brassicas.

More positively, two categories of the index recorded year-on-year deflation to ease pricing pressures.

Shaun Allen, chief executive of Prestige Purchasing, said: “While the year-long trend of falling inflation is encouraging, the return to month-on-month increases serves as a reminder that the market remains volatile. Operators should remain vigilant and closely monitor price fluctuations to ensure their businesses are well-prepared for any future challenges.”

Reuben Pullan, senior insight consultant at CGA by NIQ, added: “Twelve continuous months of decline in inflation have brought much-needed respite on the cost challenges that have besieged the foodservice sector lately.

“Along with an easing of some other input prices and consumers’ improving spending confidence, it builds optimism for a strong remainder of 2024 – but a return to month-on-month inflation warns us that prices are likely to stay volatile for some time to come.”

In June, the FPI showed that foodservice prices were stabilising, while in the previous month, Lynx Purchasing warned of produce price spikes due to wet weather.