2022 is an opportunity but not as you’ve seen it before

Hospitality is on the rise with 2022 expected to bring opportunities and many a missed celebration, but don’t expect a to return to 2019, futurist Simon Stenning has predicted.

This year is expected to build on the upwards trend of 2021, when revenues grew by 37% year-on-year reaching £70.1b, Stenning told an online gathering hosted by contract caterer Bartlett Mitchell.

However Stenning reminded those gathered virtually that this £70.1b remains far below the £98b seen in 2019, and was generated by a very different consumer.

He said consumers are very broadly splitting into two camps those with spare cash who want to get out and enjoy themselves, and the more cautious whose finances may have been stretched, or worse, during the pandemic.

Data from December also showed the rapid impact new Covid variants can have, revealing that the emergence Omicron prompted high levels of caution as it spread rapidly through the capital in the run up to Christmas.

On a more positive note, Plan B work from home advice guidance has been dropped this week and an increase in workday trade can be expected – but Stenning warned that pinning down trends post-Covid was proving difficult.

A renewed focus on work/life balance is clear and he expects to see employees spending less time in the office. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday are emerging as the busiest days and, in London at least, there appears to be increased demand for “artisanal, authentic, world cuisines”. To illustrate his observations Stenning contrasted pictures of lunchtime queues outside street food trucks, to incredibly quiet scenes at high street staples.

From an operator’s perspective profitability may prove elusive as the post Covid market settles into new patterns. Partly in response to this, as well as the staffing crisis, Stenning predicted an increased reliance on technology. He pointed to an increased use of digital ordering systems, which he said, appear to be driving up spend-per-head, and predicted the take up of automated machinery to do repetitive tasks will follow.

Stenning was positive about the opportunities to come, with consumers expected to look to make the most of occasions and celebrations following a turbulent two years when so many opportunities to be together were lost. However, there are many challenges with inflation is on the rise, VAT going up along with wages and the consumer ever more insistent on value for money. He concluded telling those gathered hospitality is on the up, but it will look very different from 2019.