The only way is up for UK hotels

The future looks bright, according to consultancy firm Deloitte, which painted an upbeat picture for the UK hotels sector at its annual European Hotel Investment Conference in London last week.

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Based on the firmÁ¢Â€Â™s HotelBenchmark data, Marvin Rust, managing partner of DeloitteÁ¢Â€Â™s hospitality division, said he expected strong growth in the UK hotels market for this year and further improvements in 2005 and 2006. Á¢Â€ÂœThe good news for London is that we continue to see revpar \[revenue per available room\] growth in the future, although less so than in 2004,Á¢Â€Â said Rust. DeloitteÁ¢Â€Â™s stats predict revpar growth of 11.1% for London this year, falling to 4% in 2005 and then rising to 10.9% in 2006. Regional areas are also on the up, with revpar growth for 2005 expected to nudge slightly ahead of the capital. Occupancy rates for the year ahead are predicted to hit 72.6%, with rate growth of 4.2%, translating into revpar growth of 4.3%. For 2006, Deloitte predicted regional revpar growth of 3.9%. Figures published this week by consultant PricewaterhouseCoopers were even more positive. PWCÁ¢Â€Â™s forecast of 10% revenue growth for the provinces in 2005 and 9% for London was more than double that of Deloitte. It was also good news on the macroeconomics front, with Roger Bootle, an economic adviser at Deloitte, debunking the idea that the high oil prices and rising inflation would have a major negative effect on the sector.

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	LondonÁ‚ revpar forecast Á¢Â€Â" Deloitte

However, the weakening dollar Á¢Â€Â" Bootle believes an exchange rate of $1.7 to the euro is Á¢Â€Âœperfectly plausibleÁ¢Â€Â Á¢Â€Â" remains a concern as it could impact on the competitiveness of European operators and hit the number of US visitors. But with UK interest rates at their peak, Bootle concluded that Á¢Â€Âœthe medium-term prospects for the travel and hospitality sectors are excellentÁ¢Â€Â. Meanwhile, it was also highlighted that airline traffic is already well up on pre-11 September levels and is expected to double again by 2010. Even the UKÁ¢Â€Â™s oft-criticised mid-market hotel sector received positive feedback, with analysts and operators concluding that it Á¢Â€Âœholds fairly solid prospectsÁ¢Â€Â. More consolidation in the European hotel sector was widely tipped, with Jean-Gabriel Peres, chief executive officer of MÁ¢Â€Âvenpick hotels, predicting at least one major purchase by a travel dotcom or a Chinese firm in the next five to seven years. The future of branding in the European branded hotels market remains a sticky subject, however. With about three-quarters of hotel stock in the USA now branded, compared with about 25% for Europe, itÁ¢Â€Â™s often said that Europe is set to follow the US example. However, delegates werenÁ¢Â€Â™t convinced. Á¢Â€ÂœMost of the easy rebranding opportunities have already occurred,Á¢Â€Â said Nick Van Marken, a lead partner in DeloitteÁ¢Â€Â™s tourism, hospitality and leisure division. Á¢Â€ÂœI think the growth rate in brands will remain slow, if not unnoticeable.Á¢Â€Â Hotel statistics for UK, London and provinces, 2000-2006 Á¢Â€Â" PriceWaterhouseCoopers

Hotel statistics for the UK	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004F	2005F	2006F
Revpar (Á‚£)	55.20	50.97	48.85	47.16	50.92	55.90	61.43
% change	4.4%	-7.7%	-4.2%	-3.5%	8.0%	9.8%	9.9%

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Hotel statistics for London	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004F	2005F	2006F
Revpar (Á‚£)	90.67	77.70	70.95	68.09	73.50	80.15	86.93
% change	5.2%	-14.3%	-8.7%	-4.0%	8.0%	9.0%	8.4%

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Hotel statistics for the provinces	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004F	2005F	2006F
Revpar (Á‚£)	43.96	42.72	41.09	40.54	44.06	48.46	53.26
% change	4.3%	-2.8%	-3.8%	-1.3%	8.7%	10.0%	9.9%

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